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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to IND 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-C.Rogers to IND 11 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model