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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP