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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Beasley (53-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model