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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP