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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 17-A.Hurns to IND 41 for 9 yards (35-P.Desir, 29-M.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model