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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 5 for -2 yards (35-P.Desir). FUMBLES (35-P.Desir), and recovers at IND 5. DAL-76-X.Su'a-Filo was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +3.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model