4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 40

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to GB 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP