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Green Bay Packers

HC Joe Philbin
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
46.4%
CHI
53.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

GB

Bryan Bulaga T Doubtful Knee
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Groin
Kenny Clark DT Questionable Elbow

CHI

Eddie Jackson S Questionable Shin
Allen Robinson WR Questionable Hip
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:12 TD CHI (2:12) 24-J.Howard right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 07:31 FG GB (7:31) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – CHI 7
  • Q2 00:38 TD CHI (:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – CHI 13
  • Q3 09:30 FG GB (9:30) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 6 – CHI 14
  • Q3 04:15 TD GB (4:15) 30-J.Williams right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – CHI 14
  • Q4 10:21 TD CHI (10:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – CHI 20
  • Q4 06:46 FG CHI (6:46) 1-C.Parkey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 14 – CHI 24
  • Q4 00:15 FG GB (:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 17 – CHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%

    (12:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 4, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:36) 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to CHI 40, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (14:08) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to CHI 9, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (7:31) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

    (2:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to GB 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:48) 84-L.Kendricks and 54-J.Crawford reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to CHI 39, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (9:30) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 26%

    (6:30) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-B.Cunningham. 30-B.Cunningham up the middle to 50 for -1 yards (98-F.Brown; 16-J.Kumerow).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:22) 84-L.Kendricks and 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to CHI 36, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 45 for 9 yards (51-K.Fackrell). PENALTY on GB-43-H.Bradley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 45.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:26) 54-J.Crawford and 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to CHI 41, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at GB 15 for 44 yards (6-J.Scott).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.98 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (6:46) 1-C.Parkey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to GB 37, Center-48-P.Scales. 37-J.Jackson MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 41.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 32 for 23 yards (38-A.Amos).