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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model