Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 84-L.Kendricks and 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to CHI 36, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 45 for 9 yards (51-K.Fackrell). PENALTY on GB-43-H.Bradley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.86 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model