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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to CHI 40, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model