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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 32 for 23 yards (38-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -0.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model