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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 14

Houston Texans 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model