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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Saturday 2018-12-15 · 16:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

HOU
64.6%
NYJ
35.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.090 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.141 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 25
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

HOU

Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Zach Fulton G Questionable Hand
Andre Hal S Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Jeremiah Attaochu LB Out Concussion
Isaiah Crowell RB Out Toe
Quincy Enunwa WR Out Ankle
Trenton Cannon RB Questionable Toe
Jordan Jenkins LB Questionable Shoulder
Trumaine Johnson CB Questionable Foot
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 29
–
NYJ 22

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:27 FG HOU (9:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 02:04 FG NYJ (2:04) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. HOU 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 12:54 FG HOU (12:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 6 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 08:22 TD HOU (8:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 04:39 FG HOU (4:39) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 16 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:35 TD NYJ (:35) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-R.Anderson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 08:44 TD NYJ (8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 19-A.Roberts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – NYJ 15
  • Q4 12:37 FG HOU (12:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 19 – NYJ 15
  • Q4 05:09 TD NYJ (5:09) 70-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 25-E.McGuire up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-55-B.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 19 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 02:20 TD HOU (2:20) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 25 – NYJ 22
  • Q4 00:57 FG HOU (:57) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 29 – NYJ 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 20 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%

    (9:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (2:04) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (12:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to HOU 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-D.Carter to HOU 31 for 15 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 63%

    (4:39) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:02) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to NYJ 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 40 for 10 yards (52-B.Peters).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:45) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 36 for 12 yards (38-G.Howell; 33-A.Moore).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to HOU 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-D.Carter to HOU 17 for 4 yards (40-T.Cannon).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:30) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to NYJ 44, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to HOU 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 73%

    (12:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 84%

    (7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to HOU 19 for 6 yards (24-J.Joseph).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Anderson (22-A.Colvin).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (:57) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 24%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 25-E.McGuire to NYJ 33 for 16 yards (24-J.Joseph).