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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 35

Houston Texans 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP