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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 80

Houston Texans 16 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to NYJ 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 40 for 10 yards (52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model