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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 80

Houston Texans 16 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to NYJ 44, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.59 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model