Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 62

New York Jets 15 – Houston Texans 16

(1:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to HOU 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.04 EP
76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model