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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 25

New York Jets 15 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to HOU 19 for 6 yards (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model