Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Jets 22 – Houston Texans 26

(1:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Anderson (22-A.Colvin).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.96 EP