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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 22

Houston Texans 26 – New York Jets 22

What Actually Happened

(:57) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model