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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 83

New York Jets 22 – Houston Texans 29

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 25-E.McGuire to NYJ 33 for 16 yards (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.26 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -1.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.00 EP