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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP