Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- KC offense: +0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.369 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.334 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- LAC defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
LAC
KC
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:18 TD KC (9:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [31-A.Phillips]. LAC 0 – KC 6
- Q1 00:51 TD KC (:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 31-Dar.Williams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – KC 13
- Q2 09:50 TD LAC (9:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – KC 14
- Q3 11:43 TD KC (11:43) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – KC 20
- Q3 05:05 TD LAC (5:05) 81-M.Williams right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – KC 21
- Q4 08:20 TD KC (8:20) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – KC 27
- Q4 03:53 TD LAC (3:53) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – KC 28
- Q4 00:08 TD LAC (:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 27 – KC 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%
(5:44) 5-D.Jones punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.
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Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 47%
(8:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to LAC 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-35-C.Ward.
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Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 58%
(3:01) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 20-D.King.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:18) 5-D.Jones punts 39 yards to KC 27, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
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Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 94 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LAC 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 39, and recovers at LAC 40. 20-D.King to LAC 40 for no gain (35-C.Ward).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%
(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin to KC 10 for 26 yards (21-E.Murray).