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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 5-D.Jones punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model