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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at MIA 32 for 8 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model