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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

MIA
40.8%
MIN
59.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Xavien Howard CB Doubtful Knee
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Ankle

MIN

Chad Beebe WR Out Hamstring
David Morgan TE Questionable Knee
Mike Remmers G Questionable Back
Sheldon Richardson DT Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
MIN 41

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:44 TD MIN (11:44) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:27 TD MIN (6:27) 33-D.Cook left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – MIN 13
  • Q1 01:38 TD MIN (1:38) 25-L.Murray left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – MIN 20
  • Q2 07:53 TD MIA (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at 50. 29-M.Fitzpatrick for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – MIN 21
  • Q2 00:18 FG MIA (:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 10 – MIN 21
  • Q3 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) 27-K.Ballage right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – MIN 21
  • Q3 08:44 FG MIN (8:44) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIA 17 – MIN 24
  • Q4 13:05 FG MIN (13:05) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIA 17 – MIN 27
  • Q4 09:59 TD MIN (9:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 17-A.Robinson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – MIN 33
  • Q4 07:58 TD MIN (7:58) 33-D.Cook left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – MIN 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:32) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to MIN 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 40 for 21 yards (34-S.Perry).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:37) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to MIN 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 8 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 46%

    (12:53) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:26) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at MIA 32 for 8 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:46) 6-M.Wile punts 44 yards to MIA 25, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 19 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:16) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIA 22 for 70 yards (88-L.Carroo).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (8:44) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:47) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 17 yards (34-S.Perry).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:25) 6-M.Wile punts 37 yards to MIA 28, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-D.Amendola MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIA 31.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:50) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to MIN 37, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for no gain (44-S.Anthony). PENALTY on MIN-27-J.Kearse, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 37.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (13:05) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:07) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to MIN 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 16 for -8 yards (96-T.Johnson).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 39%

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 43 for -10 yards (97-E.Griffen).