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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 6-M.Wile punts 44 yards to MIA 25, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model