Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 17 – Minnesota Vikings 21

(10:16) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIA 22 for 70 yards (88-L.Carroo).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model