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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model