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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to MIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 17 yards (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model