Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Miami Dolphins 17

(4:25) 6-M.Wile punts 37 yards to MIA 28, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-D.Amendola MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIA 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model