Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to MIN 37, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for no gain (44-S.Anthony). PENALTY on MIN-27-J.Kearse, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model