Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 17 – Minnesota Vikings 34

(8:03) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 16 for -8 yards (96-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.03 EP