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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to MIN 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 40 for 21 yards (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model