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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 17 – Minnesota Vikings 41

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 43 for -10 yards (97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model