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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 53

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to PIT 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:17.)

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.62 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP