Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.260 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.179 EPA/dropback
- PIT defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
NE
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:45 TD PIT (8:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – PIT 6
- Q1 06:58 TD NE (6:58) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – PIT 7
- Q2 12:07 TD PIT (12:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Holding, declined. NE 7 – PIT 13
- Q3 00:20 FG NE (:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – PIT 14
- Q4 02:34 FG PIT (2:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 10 – PIT 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%
(1:27) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
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Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 22%
(8:32) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to PIT 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:17.)
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:20) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 22%
(3:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to NE 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
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Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 73%
(:32) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PIT 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-50-R.Humber. PENALTY on NE-53-K.Van Noy, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 14.
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Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 44%
(13:08) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to PIT 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(8:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%
(:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 76%
(2:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 21 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.66 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 89%
(:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Edelman (42-M.Burnett).