Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 71

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(5:20) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.57 EP
51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model