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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to NE 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP