4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model