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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 15

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model