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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) 5-J.Townsend punts 32 yards to CIN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model