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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

OAK
49.1%
CIN
50.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.204 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Jeff Driskel (CIN): -0.042 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

OAK

Gabe Jackson G Questionable Elbow
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Toe
Maurice Hurst DT Questionable Ankle
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Hamstring

CIN

Vontaze Burfict LB Out Concussion
KeiVarae Russell CB Doubtful Finger
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Back
Michael Johnson DE Questionable Concussion
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Questionable Ankle
Tony McRae CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 16
–
CIN 30

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:04 TD CIN (3:04) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 10:20 TD CIN (10:20) (Run formation) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 06:46 FG CIN (6:46) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. OAK 0 – CIN 17
  • Q2 03:51 TD LV (3:51) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 86-L.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – CIN 17
  • Q2 01:44 FG CIN (1:44) 4-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. OAK 7 – CIN 20
  • Q3 06:33 FG LV (6:33) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 10 – CIN 20
  • Q3 02:42 FG LV (2:42) 8-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 13 – CIN 20
  • Q4 10:49 FG CIN (10:49) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. OAK 13 – CIN 23
  • Q4 05:09 FG LV (5:09) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 16 – CIN 23
  • Q4 04:10 TD CIN (4:10) 28-J.Mixon right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – CIN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:01) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to CIN 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for 4 yards (23-N.Nelson; 55-M.Lee).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:11) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to LV 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris to LV 35 for no gain (40-B.Wilson; 42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:49) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to LV 45, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 62%

    (5:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to LV 30 for 7 yards (21-G.Conley; 55-M.Lee).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (:16) 5-J.Townsend punts 32 yards to CIN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (10:20) (Run formation) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (6:46) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 91%

    (1:44) 4-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:14) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-29-T.McRae, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 32.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:35) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LV 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Harris. CIN-57-V.Rey was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (6:33) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:30) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to LV 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 46 for 14 yards (32-M.Walton).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (2:42) 8-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (10:49) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:24) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-17-D.Harris. Penalty on LV-17-D.Harris, Illegal Touch Kick, declined.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:14) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to LV 40, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris to LV 48 for 8 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 89-M.Lengel).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (5:09) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:27) 5-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to CIN 40, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.