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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to CIN 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for 4 yards (23-N.Nelson; 55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model