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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:35) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LV 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Harris. CIN-57-V.Rey was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model