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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to LV 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris to LV 35 for no gain (40-B.Wilson; 42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model