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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 8-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model