Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

(9:24) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-17-D.Harris. Penalty on LV-17-D.Harris, Illegal Touch Kick, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.62 EP
71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model