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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to LV 40, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris to LV 48 for 8 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 89-M.Lengel).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model